Winter Wheat Yield estimate Sales and Trading Commentary

Good afternoon,


I have updated my yield expectations based on NDVI readings, precipitation, and temperatures in the winter wheat areas.  For the HRW areas May was record hot and about 7.2° above normal with rainfall of 3.65 inches which was .17” above normal.


For the December to May period Temps averaged +2.3° above the long term average and precip was 6.71”.


Largely my HRW production number is lower than the avg industry estimate based on my HRW yield of 35 bpa.  These areas have had other years where 3+ inches of rain have fallen in May and still yielded low numbers and this year falls into this category.  I still think the USDA will average down their harvested acreage for HRW as we move through the process and I have moved my average to 74.5% which is the reason for why my overall yield has risen.  SRW and White wheat areas have shown normal trend potential based on NDVI.  Some SRW areas were off to a slow start which can limit yields but I am keeping with a historical HA %.  I think a good portion of the SRW areas had a warm May but for most of the year had normal temps and precip when averaged over the Spring so it keeps me close to a trend line yield.



Total winter wheat production of 1,176 bbu

HRW 602 mbu

SRW 339.4 mbu

White 235.1 mbu


HRW Yield estimate of 35 bpa

SRW Yield estimate of 67

White Yield estimate of 69.5



Winter Wheat yield of 45.9



Below is the avg survey results from Bloomberg.


Survey Results USDA
2018 Crop: Avg Low High May
All Wheat 1,811 1,720 1,870 1,821
All Winter Wheat 1,188 1,127 1,228 1,192
HRW 641 585 676 647
SRW 318 310 325 315
White Winter 229 202 242 229


Jason Carlson

Trean Group LLC

141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1201A

Chicago IL 60604


Office 312-604-6404