Good afternoon,
I have updated my yield expectations based on NDVI readings, precipitation, and temperatures in the winter wheat areas. For the HRW areas May was record hot and about 7.2° above normal with rainfall of 3.65 inches which was .17” above normal.
For the December to May period Temps averaged +2.3° above the long term average and precip was 6.71”.
Largely my HRW production number is lower than the avg industry estimate based on my HRW yield of 35 bpa. These areas have had other years where 3+ inches of rain have fallen in May and still yielded low numbers and this year falls into this category. I still think the USDA will average down their harvested acreage for HRW as we move through the process and I have moved my average to 74.5% which is the reason for why my overall yield has risen. SRW and White wheat areas have shown normal trend potential based on NDVI. Some SRW areas were off to a slow start which can limit yields but I am keeping with a historical HA %. I think a good portion of the SRW areas had a warm May but for most of the year had normal temps and precip when averaged over the Spring so it keeps me close to a trend line yield.
Total winter wheat production of 1,176 bbu
HRW 602 mbu
SRW 339.4 mbu
White 235.1 mbu
HRW Yield estimate of 35 bpa
SRW Yield estimate of 67
White Yield estimate of 69.5
Winter Wheat yield of 45.9
Below is the avg survey results from Bloomberg.
| Survey Results | USDA | |||
| 2018 Crop: | Avg | Low | High | May |
| All Wheat | 1,811 | 1,720 | 1,870 | 1,821 |
| All Winter Wheat | 1,188 | 1,127 | 1,228 | 1,192 |
| HRW | 641 | 585 | 676 | 647 |
| SRW | 318 | 310 | 325 | 315 |
| White Winter | 229 | 202 | 242 | 229 |
Jason Carlson
Trean Group LLC
141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1201A
Chicago IL 60604
Office 312-604-6404