Commodity Corner: Morning Comments

Good morning,


DXU9  96.890  +0.00                       GCQ9  1407.9  +7.8                                                                       ESU9  2983.00  -7.50                    CLQ9  57.39  -0.12


While it feels like a relatively quiet, summertime Monday morning, volumes haven’t been horrible in the overnight trade.  The highlight of the week will be Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s testimony before the House and the Senate on Wednesday and Thursday.  The market continues to be marred in the debate over whether the Fed should leave rates unchanged, cut by 25 basis points or cut by 50 basis points (very unlikely following Friday’s NFP data) at the meeting on July 31.   A cut of 25 basis points is still the consensus, although calls for no change to policy have become louder since Friday.  Oil is chopping around unchanged levels today, with a solid foundation on the charts above the $50 level, and good resistance up at $60.  Gold is recovering from the onslaught last week, trading $7 higher today.  The grain markets are higher today, in front of this afternoon’s updated crop conditions and progress reports.  Thursday brings the updated WASDE report from the USDA.  Since questions still remain regarding the planting intentions report on June 28, the market may not pay much attention to this set of data.  Revisions to the planting numbers are to come at the WASDE release in August.  Also coming out today is the delayed release of the COT data from the CFTC. 


Coffee futures continue to trade higher with frost issues in Brazil.  Copper prices are doing better today, following the bid in gold and helped out by an uptick in the Chinese auto manufacturing number for June. 


The markets continue to be on the lookout for any new developments on trade.  The weather appears to have pockets with not much precipitation and some warmer temperatures, which should aid harvest for winter wheat and crop development in corn and soybeans.  Position squaring ahead of Chairman Powell can be expected in the markets as well.      


Technical Moving Averages:

Product               50 day                100 day               200 day

SX9                       888.00                   911.75                   924.75

CZ9                      421.50                   407.25                   403.75

WU9                    494.75                   486.25                   516.25

KWU9                  448.75                   455.00                   501.75

MWU9                547.50                   553.25                   576.25

SMZ9                   315.7                     317.2                     319.1

BOZ9                   28.26                     29.35                     29.71

CLQ9                    58.53                     59.51                     59.31

GCQ9                   1329.0                   1321.2                   1294.9

LHQ9                   86.870                   88.440                   84.850

LCQ9                    106.680                 111.770                 112.595

KCU9                    99.40                     100.25                   108.80

CCU9                   2415                       2360                       2320

CTZ9                    68.40                     71.65                     73.79

SBV9                    12.46                     12.81                     12.99

JOU9                    103.65                   112.55                   125.05

HGU9                  272.15                   281.90                   279.40


Have a good day,





Michael Clifford


141 W Jackson Boulevard                             

Ste 1065                                                              

Chicago, IL 60604                                              

Trean Group, LLC