Good morning,
DXU9 96.890 +0.00 GCQ9 1407.9 +7.8 ESU9 2983.00 -7.50 CLQ9 57.39 -0.12
While it feels like a relatively quiet, summertime Monday morning, volumes haven’t been horrible in the overnight trade. The highlight of the week will be Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s testimony before the House and the Senate on Wednesday and Thursday. The market continues to be marred in the debate over whether the Fed should leave rates unchanged, cut by 25 basis points or cut by 50 basis points (very unlikely following Friday’s NFP data) at the meeting on July 31. A cut of 25 basis points is still the consensus, although calls for no change to policy have become louder since Friday. Oil is chopping around unchanged levels today, with a solid foundation on the charts above the $50 level, and good resistance up at $60. Gold is recovering from the onslaught last week, trading $7 higher today. The grain markets are higher today, in front of this afternoon’s updated crop conditions and progress reports. Thursday brings the updated WASDE report from the USDA. Since questions still remain regarding the planting intentions report on June 28, the market may not pay much attention to this set of data. Revisions to the planting numbers are to come at the WASDE release in August. Also coming out today is the delayed release of the COT data from the CFTC.
Coffee futures continue to trade higher with frost issues in Brazil. Copper prices are doing better today, following the bid in gold and helped out by an uptick in the Chinese auto manufacturing number for June.
The markets continue to be on the lookout for any new developments on trade. The weather appears to have pockets with not much precipitation and some warmer temperatures, which should aid harvest for winter wheat and crop development in corn and soybeans. Position squaring ahead of Chairman Powell can be expected in the markets as well.
Technical Moving Averages:
Product 50 day 100 day 200 day
SX9 888.00 911.75 924.75
CZ9 421.50 407.25 403.75
WU9 494.75 486.25 516.25
KWU9 448.75 455.00 501.75
MWU9 547.50 553.25 576.25
SMZ9 315.7 317.2 319.1
BOZ9 28.26 29.35 29.71
CLQ9 58.53 59.51 59.31
GCQ9 1329.0 1321.2 1294.9
LHQ9 86.870 88.440 84.850
LCQ9 106.680 111.770 112.595
KCU9 99.40 100.25 108.80
CCU9 2415 2360 2320
CTZ9 68.40 71.65 73.79
SBV9 12.46 12.81 12.99
JOU9 103.65 112.55 125.05
HGU9 272.15 281.90 279.40
Have a good day,
Mike
Michael Clifford
141 W Jackson Boulevard
Ste 1065
Chicago, IL 60604
Trean Group, LLC
312-604-6404