Good morning,

 

DXU9  96.760  +0.429                       GCQ9  1401.8  -19.1                                                                 ESU9  2988.75  -11.50                     CLQ9  56.52  -0.82

 

The markets return from the Independence Day holiday to face the release of Non-Farm Payrolls data for the month of June.  Consensus estimate for the number is +160k, versus +75k last month.  Wednesday’s ADP data was +102k versus expectations of +140k.  This number is thought to be a decent barometer for today’s number.  The Unemployment Rate today is expected to be unchanged from last month at 3.6%.  Softer numbers today could prompt the markets to try to price in a more aggressive monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve.  This will impact the dollar which will impact commodity prices.  Oil prices are lower today, continuing to rotate back down following the spike after the OPEC meeting at the beginning of the week.  Gold prices have stabilized above the $1400 level, now with 2 tests of the highs at above $1440.  Grain markets have been closed since Wednesday, where a strong rally took place with more rain storms and flooding in the forecasts.  These markets reopen today at 8:30 AM CDT.  Looking at other commodities, coffee prices continue to trade higher, as colder temperatures in Brazil keep frost concerns in view.  Cocoa is higher today, as negotiations continue between producers, buyers and regulators about pricing mechanisms.  Sugar is around unchanged to slightly lower.

 

**The NFP number came in +224k, stronger than expected, but the Unemployment Rate up ticked to 3.7%.  Average hourly earnings were a touch lower than expected.  The dollar has gone bid on this, and gold is getting hit, dropping below $1400 briefly, as the market contemplates the possibility that the Fed may not cut rates at all at the July 31 meeting.**         

 

Technical Moving Averages:

Product               50 day                100 day               200 day

SX9                       887.75                   912.25                   924.75

CZ9                      420.00                   406.75                   403.50

WU9                    493.25                   486.50                   516.50

KWU9                  448.50                   455.75                   502.50

MWU9                547.25                   553.75                   576.50

SMZ9                   315.7                     317.2                     319.0

BOZ9                   28.28                     29.39                     29.72

CLQ9                    58.69                     59.48                     59.36   

GCQ9                   1326.7                   1320.4                   1294.1

LHQ9                   87.315                   88.455                   84.860

LCQ9                    106.855                 111.850                 112.630

KCU9                    99.05                     100.20                   108.75

CCU9                   2411                       2357                       2318

CTZ9                    68.58                     71.71                     73.84

SBV9                    112.48                   12.82                     12.99

JOU9                   103.75                   112.75                   125.30

HGU9                  272.65                   282.05                   279.45

 

Have a good day,

 

Mike

 

Michael Clifford

 

141 W Jackson Boulevard                             

Ste 1065                                                              

Chicago, IL 60604                                              

Trean Group, LLC                                              

312-604-6404