waiting on Aramco deal and watching the tape for Libya and Brexit stories… (Monday)

Treasuries are trading flat to .5 bps higher in yield after Friday’s NFP flourish, while US equity indices are marginally softer. Not much to talk about today…. Volumes are around 50-70% of recent averages, with market pivoting around flat in the 7y sector, trading slightly steeper this AM. Risk markets are as mixed as the US Treasury curve.

Long awaited Saudi Aramco mega-deal is finally set to launch today and price no later than tomorrow. Details should find their way out later this morning on composition of the $10BN USD-denominated mult-trance offering. Talk over the weekend was the book was already over $26BN on Friday, as Aramco looks to price below Saudi sovereign debt levels, as that type of request could make final demand a bit interesting.

Flows were light: some Asian bank buying in 2s and 5s, but better Japanese real money selling in 10s and 30s. Other than that it has been quiet, with a light calendar in the US today before 3s, 10s, and 30s (final reopenings for the latter two) beginning tomorrow. There was macro selling of bobl (OEM9) contracts that weighed on EU and US rates, but also RV buying of buxl against US 30s that have helped Europe outperform slightly. Libya, UK, China trade will largely hog the spotlight today on what could be an otherwise boring Monday. Only data today in the US is February factory orders at 10 AM ET, including updated final durable goods number with the factory order details. There are no speakers or events scheduled today, with focus of issuance calendar on tomorrow’s $38BN new 3y notes that will kick off this week’s slog of Treasury supply.

Probably be a fairly quiet day, but think we are owed a test of 123-22/22+ in TYM9, high congestion/resistance area the last few sessions. If test is early today, look to take out the level and see if any shorts cry uncle. For choice today in TYM, let’s call the range at 123-26+ to 123-16+, the latter only becoming relevant if we fail against the early test of 123-22/22+. Other than that, just trying to stay awake.

Have a good Monday,