Good morning,
DXM0 99.265 +0.728 GCM0 1640.1 -14.0 ESM0 2540.00 +16.00 CLK0 20.21 -1.30
President Trump announced the COVID-19 precautions that have been put in place in the country are to remain through April 30, for now. With the situation constantly being monitored and reviewed, that date is likely to change. The President is optimistic/hopeful that the country can begin to really pick itself back up by June 1. Equity futures were lower to open the week last night, and have been back and forth, being up a tad at the moment. Clearly, the severity of the economic implications from the precautions being taken will be long standing. There will be a lot of back and forth price movement, as the markets continue to control risk and allocate investments across assets as needed. That being said, tomorrow is month and quarter end, and asset re-allocation has been taking place and should continue with this.
Oil futures have come under pressure overnight, with the lead WTI contract trading briefly below $20. The extension of many portions of the US economy being shut down dampens further the expected demand for oil consumption. In addition, the Saudi Arabia / Russia impasse on production limits appears to be escalating a bit, as Russia made comments saying it could withstand oil at $25 (Brent) while Saudi Arabia has said it has more oil to hit the export market with.
Gold prices are approximately $10 lower at this moment, having traded $20 higher than settlement in the overnight hours, primarily as a safety harbinger with global governments getting more aggressive on the pandemic fight. China stepped in overnight, and cut its reverse repo rate, along with injecting 7B worth of stimulus into the market. (this helped support the dollar overnight). The gold market is continuing to work off last week’s delivery squeeze rally, which saw prices scream to $1700.
Grain markets are higher today, with the exception of corn which is being tugged lower on the oil/ethanol trade. Soybeans, soymeal and wheat are all firm this morning, as increased demand is expected as the country will remain on lockdown longer. This will put a bid into staple products, such as flour and bread. Soybeans also have an opportunity to capture some additional market share. Pro-active steps being taken in South America to control the spread of the pandemic by placing restrictions at the ports slows the distribution of the newly harvested South American crops, creating the US window. Tomorrow brings the Quarterly Stocks report and Planting Intentions forecast. An increase to the amount of acres planted for both corn and soybeans is expected. With the latest plunge in corn prices on the ethanol demand story, some are questioning if there may be a late switch to soybeans from corn. Most feel it’s probably too late in the game for any significant changes to take place.
Coffee also has a bid this morning for similar reasons, the extension of the shelter in place increases demand for the staples, along with the SA port restrictions. Coffee prices were hit hard on Friday, in a combination of long liquidation, increased amount of available inventories and demand questions. Cocoa prices are up slightly today, having been under pressure most of last week as the seasonality demand is likely not to be as strong this year. Cotton prices are also down sharply, both last week and today, as demand is certainly in question with the global economic lockdown to be in place longer than originally thought.
There is a lot of data on the economic calendar this week, however not sure how much of it really matters. It is very safe to assume all the manufacturing index numbers will be very soft, as will Friday’s non-farm payrolls data. The most significant piece of economic news, should be the jobless claims data on Thursday. Following the 3+ million claims filed last week, the market is expecting to see a number as much as double that this week.
Technical Moving Averages:
Product 50 day 100 day 200 day
SK0 890.75 916.00 925.25
CK0 375.25 382.75 400.25
WK0 545.25 542.00 528.50
KWK0 470.50 465.50 462.50
MWK0 536.00 539.00 548.50
SMK0 303.5 305.4 310.2
BOK0 29.56 31.27 30.65
CLK0 44.13 50.99 52.62
GCM0 1597.5 1552.4 1522.7
LHM0 78.340 83.235 86.030
LCM0 104.960 111.570 110.885
KCK0 110.20 116.80 112.20
CCK0 2655 2611 2518
CTK0 64.48 66.36 65.19
SBK0 13.52 13.39 13.11
JOK0 100.90 102.25 106.50
HGK0 252.00 263.60 264.45
HOK0 147.83 169.83 177.70
XBK0 139.75 162.05 167.98
NGK0 1.880 2.059 2.191
Thanks,
Mike
Michael Clifford
141 W Jackson Boulevard
Ste 1065
Chicago, IL 60604
Trean Group, LLC
312-604-6404