Commodity Corner: Morning Comments

Good morning,


DXZ9  98.290  +0.088                 GCG0  1463.7  -9.0                                       ESZ9  3148.500  +4.75                CLF0  56.42  +1.25


The markets return from the Thanksgiving holiday, with equities up for the session, but rotating back off the highs made overnight.  Gold prices are under pressure, in a responsive reaction to decent manufacturing data out of Europe.  It is a very heavy economic calendar week, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting next week, so the markets will have much to chew on and digest.   


Oil was the main feature on Friday, and it is again to start this week.  Of course, the OPEC+ meetings at week’s end will be the focal point for this market.  On Friday, Saudi Arabia suggested that further production cuts would not be discussed and the meetings this week.  That sent oil into a huge nosedive, dropping almost $3.   Prices have recovered today, in part on Iraq suggesting increases to production quotas will be discussed and on the heels of the European manufacturing data coming in just ahead of estimates.  We can expect to see a choppy, position squaring trade in oil, ahead of the meeting this Thursday and Friday.


The grain markets are mixed this morning, as the holiday weekend storm, which caused some major travel disruptions, is believed to have not been detrimental for the grain markets.  Harvest should be drawing to a close, and the next WASDE report will come out next week, where the market may get a look at any revisions to production estimates.  Trade progress (or lack of) should be the biggest input for the grains.  Other commodities will also be looking at the trade deal, and the overall health of the global economy, to take its cue for the price action.  Any significant changes in the FX markets can have an impact here.  The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged at next week’s meeting. 


As mentioned, this is a very big week of data in the US.  There is manufacturing data early in the week, and then employment data at the end of the week.  The OPEC+ meeting also comes at week’s end.  Next week brings the Fed meeting.   Headlines on trade and on the impeachment inquiry also can not be ruled out as potentially provided a jolt to the markets.  There is plenty on deck to stay tuned for.      


Technical Moving Averages:

Product               50 day                100 day               200 day

SF0                       923.75                   910.50                   915.75

CH0                      391.75                   398.50                   408.75

WH0                    513.00                   504.75                   508.75

KWH0                  431.00                   435.50                   464.00

MWH0                 542.00                   539.00                   558.25

SMF0                   305.1                     304.9                     311.5

BOF0                   30.62                     29.87                     29.69

CLF0                     55.54                     55.53                     57.32

GCG0                   1496.9                   1496.7                   1418.9

LHG0                   73.795                   73.480                   73.030

LCG0                    120.850                 116.930                 117.900       

KCH0                    105.80                   105.40                   106.50

CCH0                    2527                       2437                       2409

CTH0                    64.42                     62.96                     67.54

SBH0                    12.55                     12.56                     13.12

JOF0                    100.65                   103.25                   110.25

HGH0                  264.25                   264.25                   273.45






Michael Clifford


141 W Jackson Boulevard                             

Ste 1065                                                              

Chicago, IL 60604                                              

Trean Group, LLC