Good morning,
DXZ9 98.290 +0.088 GCG0 1463.7 -9.0 ESZ9 3148.500 +4.75 CLF0 56.42 +1.25
The markets return from the Thanksgiving holiday, with equities up for the session, but rotating back off the highs made overnight. Gold prices are under pressure, in a responsive reaction to decent manufacturing data out of Europe. It is a very heavy economic calendar week, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting next week, so the markets will have much to chew on and digest.
Oil was the main feature on Friday, and it is again to start this week. Of course, the OPEC+ meetings at week’s end will be the focal point for this market. On Friday, Saudi Arabia suggested that further production cuts would not be discussed and the meetings this week. That sent oil into a huge nosedive, dropping almost $3. Prices have recovered today, in part on Iraq suggesting increases to production quotas will be discussed and on the heels of the European manufacturing data coming in just ahead of estimates. We can expect to see a choppy, position squaring trade in oil, ahead of the meeting this Thursday and Friday.
The grain markets are mixed this morning, as the holiday weekend storm, which caused some major travel disruptions, is believed to have not been detrimental for the grain markets. Harvest should be drawing to a close, and the next WASDE report will come out next week, where the market may get a look at any revisions to production estimates. Trade progress (or lack of) should be the biggest input for the grains. Other commodities will also be looking at the trade deal, and the overall health of the global economy, to take its cue for the price action. Any significant changes in the FX markets can have an impact here. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged at next week’s meeting.
As mentioned, this is a very big week of data in the US. There is manufacturing data early in the week, and then employment data at the end of the week. The OPEC+ meeting also comes at week’s end. Next week brings the Fed meeting. Headlines on trade and on the impeachment inquiry also can not be ruled out as potentially provided a jolt to the markets. There is plenty on deck to stay tuned for.
Technical Moving Averages:
Product 50 day 100 day 200 day
SF0 923.75 910.50 915.75
CH0 391.75 398.50 408.75
WH0 513.00 504.75 508.75
KWH0 431.00 435.50 464.00
MWH0 542.00 539.00 558.25
SMF0 305.1 304.9 311.5
BOF0 30.62 29.87 29.69
CLF0 55.54 55.53 57.32
GCG0 1496.9 1496.7 1418.9
LHG0 73.795 73.480 73.030
LCG0 120.850 116.930 117.900
KCH0 105.80 105.40 106.50
CCH0 2527 2437 2409
CTH0 64.42 62.96 67.54
SBH0 12.55 12.56 13.12
JOF0 100.65 103.25 110.25
HGH0 264.25 264.25 273.45
Thanks,
Mike
Michael Clifford
141 W Jackson Boulevard
Ste 1065
Chicago, IL 60604
Trean Group, LLC
312-604-6404